Air Pollution and Violent Crimes in Iran: A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship Between Atmospheric Pollutants and Crime Rates in Metropolitan Areas

While the associations between pollution, human health, and behavior have been widely studied, the relationship between air pollution and violent crime remains underexplored. Using an interdisciplinary approach within green criminology, this study examines statistical associations between air pollution, mental health, and violent behavior in Iran, aiming to contribute to evidence-informed environmental security discussions. Time-series analysis, regression models, and panel data techniques were used to explore relationships between key pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, CO, NO₂, SO₂, and O₃) and violent crime rates in Tehran and the provinces of Mashhad, Isfahan, Fars, Alborz, and Rasht from 2016 to 2021. Given the observational nature of the data, all results represent correlations rather than causal effects.
In Tehran, ozone (O₃) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) show statistically significant positive associations with violent crime rates, while carbon monoxide (CO) displays a weak negative association. By contrast, PM2.5 shows no statistically significant relationship with violent crime. Although province-level descriptive patterns appear heterogeneous, the overall correlation between PM2.5 and crime is very small (r = 0.068), and the panel regression coefficient is statistically insignificant, indicating that PM2.5 is not a meaningful correlational predictor in this context.
The study identifies pollutant–crime co-movements rather than causal effects, with only O₃ and NO₂ exhibiting consistent statistical associations with violent crime. These findings highlight the importance of considering environmental, economic, and social conditions when examining pollution crime relationships. The results contribute to a more nuanced understanding of environmental correlates relevant to urban planning, environmental management, and public security in Asian metropolitan regions.