Air Pollution and Violent Crimes in Iran: A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship Between Atmospheric Pollutants and Crime Rates in Metropolitan Ar

Document Type : Original Research Articles

Authors
Razieh Saberi 1
Mohadeseh Alsadat Farzammehr 2
elham tabrizi 3
1 1 Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran
2 2 Judiciary Research Institute, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran
3 3 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Kharazmi, Islamic Republic of Iran
10.22059/jsciences.2026.402066.1007953
Abstract
While the associations between pollution, human health, and behavior have been widely studied, the relationship between air pollution and violent crime remains underexplored. Using an interdisciplinary approach within green criminology, this study examines the statistical associations between air pollution, mental health, and violent behavior in Iran, aiming to contribute to evidence-informed environmental security discussions. Time-series analysis, regression models, and panel data techniques were used to explore relationships between key pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, CO, NO₂, SO₂, and O₃) and violent crime rates in Tehran and the provinces of Mashhad, Isfahan, Fars, Alborz, and Rasht from 2016 to 2021. Given the observational nature of the data, all results represent correlations rather than causal effects. In Tehran, ozone (O₃) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) show statistically significant positive associations with violent crime rates, while carbon monoxide (CO) displays a weak negative association; by contrast, PM2.5 shows no statistically significant relationship with violent crime. Although province-level descriptive patterns appear heterogeneous, the overall correlation between PM2.5 and crime is trivially small (0.068), and the panel regression coefficient is statistically insignificant ( ), indicating that PM2.5 is not a meaningful correlational predictor in this context. The study identifies pollutant–crime co-movements rather than causal effects, with only O₃ and NO₂ exhibiting consistent statistical associations with violent crime, and highlights the importance of considering environmental, economic, and social conditions when examining pollution–crime relationships, contributing to a more nuanced understanding of environmental correlates relevant to urban planning, environmental management, and public security in Asian metropolitan regions.
Keywords
Air Pollution
Violent Crimes
Atmospheric Pollutants
Urban Security
Green Criminology
Subjects
1.  Allam F, Dao AT, Chugh G, Bohat R, Jafri F, Patki G, et al. Grape powder supplementation prevents oxidative stress-induced anxiety-like behavior, memory impairment, and high blood pressure in rats. J Nutr. 2013;143(6):835-42.
2.  Amale HS, Negi D. Fire in the fields, crime in the air. SSRN working paper. 2025. doi:10.2139/ssrn.5280478.
3.  Baryshnikova NV, Davidson SF, Wesselbaum D. Does pollution affect crime? Evidence from US cities. Econ Discuss Pap Ser. 2019;(1910). Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/10523/9813.
4.  Beurel E, Jope RS. Inflammation and lithium: clues to mechanisms contributing to suicide-linked traits. Transl Psychiatry. 2014;4(12): e488.
5.  Billings SB, Deming DJ, Rockoff JE. School segregation, educational attainment, and crime. Q J Econ. 2014;129(1):435-76.
6.  Block ML, Calderón-Garcidueñas L. Air pollution: mechanisms of neuroinflammation and CNS disease. Trends Neurosci. 2009;32(9):506-16.
7.  Bondy M, Roth S, Sager L. Crime is in the air: air pollution and crime. J Assoc Environ Resour Econ. 2020;7(3):555-85.
8.  Buil-Gil D, Oliveira TR, Maldonado-Guzmán DJ. Climate change and crime: shifts in seasonal violence patterns. CrimRxiv. 2026.
9.  Burkhardt J, Bayham J, Wilson A, Carter E, Berman JD, O’Dell K, et al. The effect of pollution on crime: evidence from particulate matter and ozone. J Environ Econ Manag. 2020; 98:102267.
10. Chen S, Li T. The effect of air pollution on criminal activities. Reg Sci Urban Econ. 2020; 83:103528.
11. Cohn EG, Peterson AG, Tarr DB. Temperature, city size, and the southern subculture of violence. J Appl Soc Psychol. 2004;34(8):1652-74.
12. Cory-Slechta DA, Allen JL, Conrad K, Marvin E, Sobolewski M. Developmental exposure to low-level ambient ultrafine particle air pollution and cognitive dysfunction. Neurotoxicology. 2018; 69:217-31.
13. Crockett MJ, Apergis-Schoute A, Herrmann B, Lieberman MD, Müller U, Robbins TW, et al. Serotonin modulates striatal responses to fairness. J Neurosci. 2013;33(8):3505-13.
14. Cruz E, D’Alessio SJ, Stolzenberg L. Air pollution and violent criminal behaviour. Br J Criminol. 2022;62(2):450-67.
15. Du X. Symptom or culprit? Social media, air pollution, and violence. Econ J. 2026; ueag024.
16. Ebenstein A, Lavy V, Roth S. Long-run economic consequences of high-stakes exams: evidence from pollution. Am Econ J Appl Econ. 2016;8(4):36-65.
17. Frankle WG, Lombardo I, New AS, Goodman M, Talbot PS, Huang Y, et al. Serotonin transporter distribution in impulsive aggressivity. Am J Psychiatry. 2005;162(5):915-23.
18. González-Ordoñez D, Catalán-Salgado EA, Luna-Benoso B, Jiménez-Ruiz RB, Jiménez-Alcantar D, Aldape-Perez M, et al. An urban data analytics approach to explore relations between air pollution and crime in Mexico City. In: International Symposium on Web and Wireless Geographical Information Systems. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland; 2025. p. 77-89.
19. Graff Zivin J, Neidell M. The impact of pollution on worker productivity. Am Econ Rev. 2012;102(7):3652-73.
20. Hao Y, Chen H, Zhang Q. Income inequality and environmental quality in China. Ecol Indic. 2016; 67:533-42.
21. Herrnstadt E, Heyes A, Muehlegger E, Saberian S. Air pollution as a cause of violent crime. Mimeo. 2016.
22. Hernández W, Dammert L, Kanashiro L. Fear of crime and inequalities in Peru. Aust N Z J Criminol. 2020;53(4):515-35.
23. Heyes A, Neidell M, Saberian S. The effect of air pollution on investor behavior. NBER Working Paper No. 22753. 2016.
24. Heyes A, Saberian S. Air pollution causes violent crime. Univ Ottawa Working Pap No. 1514E. 2015.
25. Hopkins RO, Woon FLM. CO poisoning and neuroimaging outcomes. Behav Cogn Neurosci Rev. 2006;5(2):141-55.
26. Jayaraj RL, Rodriguez EA, Wang Y, Block ML. Ambient air pollution and neurodegenerative diseases. Curr Environ Health Rep. 2017;4(2):166-79.
27. Jiang X, Xu Z, Zhang A, Zheng Z. Do meteorological and environmental factors influence theft crimes? Int J Law Crime Justice. 2026; 85:100843.
28. Jorgenson AK, Schor JB, Knight KW, Huang X. Domestic inequality and carbon emissions. Sociol Forum. 2016; 31:770-86.
29. Kandasamy N, Hardy B, Page L, Schaffner M, Graggaber J, Powlson AS, et al. Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2014;111(9):3608-13.
30. Keizer K, Lindenberg S, Steg L. The spreading of disorder. Science. 2008;322(5908):1681-5.
31. Kuo PF, Putra IGB. Air pollution and crime types. PLoS One. 2021;16(8): e0255653.
32. Lichter A, Pestel N, Sommer E. Productivity effects of air pollution. Labour Econ. 2017; 48:54-66.
33. Li H, Cai J, Chen R, Zhao Z, Ying Z, Wang L, et al. PM exposure and stress hormones. Circulation. 2017;136(7):618-27.
34. Lynch MJ, Barrett KL, Stretesky PB, Long MA. Lack of quantitative research in green criminology. Crit Criminol. 2017;25(2):183-98.
35. Lu JG, Lee JJ, Gino F, Galinsky AD. Polluted morality: air pollution and unethical behavior. Psychol Sci. 2018;29(3):340-55.
36. Meidenbauer KL, Schertz KE, Janey EA, Stier AJ, Samtani AL, Gehrke K, et al. Environmental influences on impulsivity and aggression. Urban For Urban Green. 2025; 103:128594.
37. Murphy SR, Schelegle ES, Miller LA, Hyde DM, Van Winkle LS. Ozone exposure alters serotonin expression. Toxicol Sci. 2013;134(1):168-79.
38. Park J, Oh J, Yoon H, Kim A, Kang C, Kwon D, et al. PM2.5 and violence in South Korea. PLoS One. 2024;19(12): e0315914.
39. Pinkerton KE, Rom WN, Akpinar-Elci M, Balmes JR, Bayram H, Brandli O, et al. Climate change and health. Proc Am Thorac Soc. 2012;9(1):3-8.
40. Rau AT, Harding AB, Ryan A, Ramirez MR, Renner LM, Berman JD. Air pollution and violence in schools. Inj Epidemiol. 2024; 11:24.
41. Rojas-Álvarez A. Air pollution and safety incidents in Medellín. Int J Urban Sustain Dev. 2025;17(1):20-43.
42. Russ TC, Reis S, van Tongeren M. Air pollution and brain health. Curr Opin Psychiatry. 2019;32(2):97-104.
43. Sadana D. Early childhood pollution exposure and crime. Environ Resour Econ. 2022;84(1):279-312.
44. Sager L. Estimating the effect of air pollution on road safety. GRI Working Pap No. 251. 2016.
45. Sarmiento L. Hourly air pollution and crime behaviour. DIW Berlin Discuss Pap No. 1879. 2020.
46. Sass V, Kravitz-Wirtz N, Karceski SM, Hajat A, Crowder K, Takeuchi D. Air pollution and psychological distress. Health Place. 2017; 48:72-9.
47. Schlenker W, Walker WR. Airports, air pollution, and health. Rev Econ Stud. 2016;83(2):768-809.
48. Singh TP, Visaria S. Air pollution and crime in India. SocArXiv. 2021. doi:10.31219/osf.io/hs4xj.
49. Varghese GK, Pettersson M. Challenges to handling pollution as crime. Detritus. 2025;(31):I-IV.
50. Yao T, Zhang J, Yang X, Wang Y, Ye H, Zhang Z, et al. Weather patterns and violent crime in South Africa. Humanit Soc Sci Commun. 2025; 12:1106.
 
Journal of Sciences, Islamic Republic of Iran
Volume 36, Issue 2
Spring 2025
Pages 163-181