Journal of Sciences, Islamic Republic of Iran

Modeling Mortality in Heart Failure Patients: Considering Time-Varying Effects - A Bayesian Survival Analysis Utilizing Bayesian AFT Model with the INLA Method

Document Type : Original Paper

Authors

Department of Statistics, Periyar University, Salem, Tamil Nadu, India

Abstract

Heart failure and disease ranks among the most common illnesses globally. Heart failure is a condition where the heart cannot pump blood efficiently, posing a growing global public health challenge with a high mortality rate. This study aimed to identify factors influencing the survival time of heart failure patients. Using secondary data, 299 heart failure patients were studied based on medical records from a 12-month enrollment period. The analysis employed Kaplan-Meier plots and Bayesian parametric survival models, utilizing SPSS and R software, with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation methods. The Bayesian lognormal accelerated failure time model was deemed appropriate based on model selection criteria. The results indicated that factors such as age, gender, height, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, smoking, alcohol consumption, and the presence of heart disease significantly affected survival times. Cholesterol levels notably impacted survival outcomes in older patients. The Bayesian Weibull accelerated failure time model also described the survival data well. The study's findings suggested that the age groups 59 to 95 and above were most affected by heart failure, significantly impacting survival time.

Keywords

Main Subjects

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Journal of Sciences, Islamic Republic of Iran
Volume 35, Issue 4
October 2024
Pages 341-349